Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. If you think you are hardcore enough to handle Maximum Mustache, feel free to start at the first article and read your way up to the present using the links at the bottom of each article. BURST ( http://burst-coin.org ) as an example uses PoC (Proof of Capacity). Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Mostly: Its shiny and pretty and makes great jewelry and chicks dig it. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! OK, But What if Bitcoin Becomes the World Currency? TO_Ont I refer you to: https://shitcoin.me/. MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. Its a win-win situation. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. Why should it not be? Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. Ive personally stayed away having learned these lessons in a past life. If it was instead patentable Id buy some stock in the holder. Do we really want a place where youre either an Amazonian or Walmartian? Is having 1-2% of my overall portfolio in cryptocurrency stupid? No, not to me. Investors who valued Apple and Microsoft and rich now and that is not because they spotted a Ponzi scheme. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. Please dont take the Proof of Work Blockchain like Bitcoins as the Blockchain. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. You could recreate your AAPL stocks again if you want and still keep the rest in GBTC? Your comment is timestamped January 7, 2018. This is because society is nothing but an abstract grouping of individuals. Look at Cardano for example, they are building blockchain with built in treasury and KYC/AML endpoints. They said they are going to ban it, but there was such public outcry the government just backed off and now says they are still discussing the matter! Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. Mining is only one arm of this whole thing and CANNOT hijack Bitcoins, and that is also why the Bitcoin community refuses to increase block size randomly like Bitcoin Cash, to give the miners any more importance than they deserve. Started by myrrh. For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! This is where the speculating comes in. Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates often very quickly. Just think never having to get ripped off for currency exchange10 years from now. Go ahead and click on any titles that intrigue you, and I hope to see you around here more often. This is the most blasphemous thing ever to be written by MMM. Jeremy Collins I dont feel like making a well-constructed arguments because Im tired and this may make me look like a fool but frankly, I dont care. A boy named Sue Bitcoin is not a bubble, its the pin :), Not looking so good right now January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. Im pretty disappointed that no one responded to the points brought up by Mark D. Just more tulip bulb analogies, glib dismissals, etc. January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. If it works out, its a windfall. Quick, get me that money on PayPal before you miss out on any more of this incredible performance!, Figure 2: Random people on Twitter doing some deep, useful Investment Analysis on Bitcoin. Or grid power in general. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Look up ethereum and Eos and read deeply on how fundamental this decentralised future beholds. This is certainly a correct analysis Mr. Mustache. But I did put about $600 in Bitcoin over a year ago. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. That is what people said 1999/2000 for the dotcom bubble. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. (Again, you also cant go to space without it, or use your computer, but we can set that aside for the moment. The Ramsey Show. He said Bitcoin is stupid and speculative. Research further. Last May, when I announced I had inked a deal with Harriman House to publish my new book, Pathfinders, I invited those of you who had embraced The Simple Path to Wealth to share your stories. Scott Nicholson Is the logical conclusion to short a mania or stay on the sidelines? Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. January 5, 2018, 7:21 pm, *cough* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. Appreciate the term scarcity. Yes. Fair comparison? Before stating something, do your research of what is a Ponzi and what is a Pyramid Scheme and whether Bitcoin fits that or not? Fiat currencies my friend is working overtime for its own demise. Watch on. So for it to be a global currency taco bell is going to have to start paying kids in btc. Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. Long time reader, first time commenter (ha). Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. This is no different from rich wall street people and government controlling fiat currency.. For one you keep bringing up this no intrinsic value point, which is common, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. FOMO! 100% agree. On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! Doh! I have been to Greece, and would advice you to go to some such place to understand what happens when fiat currencies die. April 2, 2018, 7:38 am. Its a little like taking out the garbage. ie beauty counter for nerds. Videos about Personal Finance, Early Retirement, and Other Stuff. Some of my conversations with him inspired the research in this article. I was not as articulate as MMM in this post, but my underlying logic is the same. 3. The NEW, BEST way to absorb all of this monetary wisdom is to subscribe to the newsletter and boot camp using the boxes to the right -> Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Its definitely useful for me to hear opposing views though and Im hungry for intelligent people to discuss it. The most useful comments are those written with the goal of learning from or helping out other readers after reading the whole article and all the earlier comments. coinwarz.com keeps track of profitability, but it can rapidly swing with changes in coin price. Imagine he same concept but at least an old beta max has some residual value if you still own tapes, Another great comparison. Adeney retired from his job as a software engineer in 2005 at age 30 by spending only a small percentage of his annual salary and consistently investing the remainder, primarily in stock market index funds. Rather like italicising. Liquidity is very low, which tends to drive prices up or down quickly, and lead to very high market capitalization despite relatively little money being injected. How is that even possible? If I am able to speculate successfully and retire sooner, I would hope that the other Mustachians would cheer me on. Right now, I think that this space allows people to be their own VC. Guess what, we can automate all of those jobs with cryptocurrencies. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. Because of this, newspapers start reporting on prices daily, triggering so many tales of instant riches that you notice even your barber and your massage therapist are offering tips on how to invest in this new asset class. No wait, not kinda bonkers, totally effing insane and unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. Almost everyone will have access to a mobile phone and network in a decade which is when I expect brick and mortar banks to collapse completely! If you have the courage. Yeah, I had watched/listened to lots of Andreas stuff as part of the research for this. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. One thing in that seems to be missing in this conversation that Bitcoin maximalists will always point out: And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. Alright, time for a thought experiment. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. Doesnt mean you cant speculate to help you get to FIRE sooner though. Why? I suspect it will have uses beyond public currency. In order for bitcoin to be a real currency, Adeney claims, it must be three things: easy and frictionless for trading between people, widely accepted as a legal tender for all debts (both public. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. Hows that any different. TomTX, nothing was answered. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.. Some more attractive or reliable bulbs might even reasonably cost more. For me, its just like watching a show that I dont know the ending of yet. I argue that fiat currency is inefficient because its supply is always increasing. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. An Aside: Why should we listen to you, Mustache? You know what else they have at bars? We dont buy average cars or average homes we buy older cars, and smaller homes to cut costs and live a modest life. I dont care either way about bitcoin and am not even sure why hydro comes into the discussion, but you cant say something so blatantly 180 degrees false and expect not to be corrected! You respond with an implied personal insult. For one, your irrational hatred of gold, whose function for human beings you do not seem to understand. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. Speculation is fine, as long as you are using only money you are willing to lose. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. Mr. Money Mustac. January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. People get excited about Bitcoin when the price goes up, but thats because they like making money not because the underlying object has any actual value or usefulness. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". Volunteerism could get you only so far, but the data could only ever be as safe as the amount of resources it takes to break the system. Im not so sure youre right about mining them though, especially if you mine with computer hardware that you already have. Fiat currency was implemented in 1933 in the USA. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. One way or another, at some point, the cycle will end, and the cycle will start again. I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. Mr. Money Mustache Its not as simple as you make it personally. Bond *prices* are higher than ever today, which is the reciprocal of them having a high yield. January 3, 2018, 4:34 pm. January 3, 2018, 12:21 pm. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/arts/design/has-the-art-market-become-an-unwitting-partner-in-crime.html. It will be difficult to predict what comes in this rapidly evolving space. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. Bitcoin and altcoins consume a ridiculous amount of energy. Its diversification. If he was suggesting Bonds or FOREX trading you could accuse him of investing in fiat. But its likely just down the toilet. At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. I was tempted by the neat aspect of being involved in this thing I knew would have some kind of future value blockchain. So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? Ryan Thomas That shit is gonna go way way up to 50k! Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Totally agree about cryptos- but not sure gold should be lumped in with them. Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. Vivek Prasannan I am laughing my ass out. In 2018 and 2019, expect the speculation to subside as more tokenomics becomes important for valuations. Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. Please dont fall for Hype, generally fed by the Banks and their Media! College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. All points noted. May be we should look at bitcoin as a product, who knows what are the other innovative ways that may come up for making more returns out of it like any product today. Nope I am not a skeptic, and also since I was there then (with pre-internet BBS). Most people understand nothing apart from my friend bought some BTC for $5k last month and now theyre worth $20k. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. December 10, 2018, 5:45 pm, Dang! 1. Those who are in it are using it for speculative purposes, not as a currency. Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? A stock is a share of an actual company, bound by rules and regs (however imperfectly administered, at least they exist). Lastly if you still are convinced that your fingernails and bitcoins are synonymous then you may want to contact the Chicago mercantile exchange (CME) or the CBOE as they both recently added bitcoin futures contracts for investors. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices.. Of course get out NOW. January 2, 2018, 6:04 pm. This YouTube Video is one of the best shortcuts I found for explaining how Blockchain (and Bitcoin) works. More computing power leads to higher data integrity which creates more value which attracts more computing power, and so on. I totally agree with you on bitcoin. While it is true that stocks are probably expensive right now, one thing that doesnt get mentioned enough with Shiller P/E is the E represents the 10-year rolling average inflation-adjusted earnings. January 3, 2018, 12:55 pm. Meanwhile, the honest, hard-working regular folks see their interest both plummet to nearly nothing, and they then see THAT minuscule interest TAXED AGAIN! SMH. =. Bitcoin and other Cryptos are attractive for that reason and that why people spread this misinformation about it to sway people from backing it. Some newer, better tech has now taken BTCs place here (LTC or any DAG technology). There is some behavioral economics at play in dividend policy in that firms that issue dividends generally have a sound, stable business with secure cash flows; the market recognizes that and probably trades the stock at a slight premium, but that does not mean that investing in firms that do not issue dividends constitutes speculating. Governments have no choice here. As has the MMM investing sub-furum. Keep plenty for yourself. That said, Im still not so sure. Personally I fail to see the reference between Failhypecoins and retails challenges with shopping online. As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. Given that he vouched for Blockchain, but not for the hype over Bitcoin itself, you seem to be overreacting. The reason is that its not an investment. January 15, 2018, 4:00 pm. Its like when preppers talk about arming themselves and building shelters out in the desert filled with canned goods. As for spending your Bitcoin, I digress. So Im going with no. Mr. Butler A timeline in yearsmy probability calculator says 99% or better that youll lose money, possibly all of it, if you hang on for years. Then in November I sold it and bought GBTC, which is a OTC fund holding bitcoins. For the most part, far from perfect, I am very thankful that it works. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. Because I think they dont want to devalue the money too fast. So right there you can scratch off any use of blockchain as pointless if it doesnt benefit from immutability. That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. Whether you should get out is a difficult question. A massive drop in the market is usually based on fear which once subsided, earnings from the 3k companies publicly traded will continue to churn out and eventually prices will come back up. My issue is with the currencies themselves. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. If youre in a position to do so, go for it. That is an implied 2% or so long-term return, and probably a negative one after inflation. Do not let your own brain trick you for easy solutions! The world is changing which many westerners cannot see. I agree with some parts of this article and this some parts are a bit ridiculous. Hurry! Michael However i travelled last year and found bitcoin is fast becoming the reserve currency for many African countries that have no banking or any infrastructure and is replacing the dollar. Some people like owning pretty jewelry. Now the ball has reached proportions where it could blow up anytime, and people in this forum are talking about the small change like the bubble and P/E ratio in the stock market. But yes, I would not invest in crypto currency. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. Its a complete rip off. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. But its not some spectacular Instant Trillionaire piece of magic. Couldnt have said it any better myself. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. Its totally different when you lose your money by yourself. Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! Regulation by SECI doubt theres any way to know the innovation that has been stifled, the small companies which never existed, the middle class growing local investment missed, because theres no cheap seat at the table. Its a win-win situation.. im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? Mr. Money Mustache January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. Buying real estate, gold, stocks, even ETFs and Bitcoins, all of these have risk. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. It is accumulated by countries, banks, and careful funancial entities. People went off on many rants back when a single tulip bulb could have the same value as a ocean going ship, just as back then we had many people who couldnt stop talking about how great tulip bulbs are and why we should all be buying them. God speed my friend. January 3, 2018, 4:28 pm. You WILL be wrong. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. Bill Batchelor I think that the point being missed in all of this is NOT that people want to evade taxes, but that they are being screwed backwards & forwards by the banks (& the tax evaders-in-chief that run them). Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. Liked. No major government will transact in a currency it cannot control. January 3, 2018, 12:30 pm, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. If you dont have fiat money to buy the bitcoin then someone is going to have to start getting paid in btc. Your examples exactly prove the point: social media is great, but the first ones to take off werent the winner remember SixDegrees, Friendster, MySpace? People like planting gardens. January 4, 2018, 10:38 am. Whatever they are willing to pay to enjoy owning these things themselves is their business, and may make for a fairly rational purchase. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Air and the US Dollar. As far as Im concerned, this is the final word on Bitcoin. That is why I also invest in government bonds. The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! We still need banks for other forms of financial services such as loans, investments, business services, etc.. Will Bitcoin replace that, too? Thats not a bubble, but something else entirely. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. I use purse.io to buy stuff from Amazon. Bitcoin has very little usage. They always do.. Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. Say I trade you a car for 1 bitcoin on Jan 8. Margin of Saving Its a constant struggle to find the right price. (which is more Mustachian..), Michelle, Mr Buffetts advice is clearly correct I mean, its Warren Buffett were talking about. We cannot have better living conditions for half of humanity on this planet under a corrupt and manipulative central banking system of various countries, that are not even true democracies. I agree with Tawcan. The bitcoin price isnt rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business. What if you want it for yourself, or have customers or distributors that do? We have been in an expansion (the weakest one in US history) for almost 9 years. BigTasty1212 So, something that looks profitable today may be just a power-burner in a few weeks. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. destroy? (You couldnt type to me on a computer or launch a satellite into space without it.). Cryptocurrencies are the key to humanitys survival. 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