Mark Zuckerberg, in 2004, wanted nothing more than to sell Facebook for a few million dollars so he could work on his P2P filesharing program, Wirehog, commenting that the sale price just needed to be large enough to propel Wirehog. Youtube was a dating site. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. Fedex, early on, couldnt make payroll and the founder famously kept the planes flying only by gambling the last of their money in Las Vegas, among other near-death experiences & crimesjust one of many startups doing highly questionable things.12 Both SpaceX & Tesla have come within days (or hours) of bankruptcy, in 2008 and 2013; in the former case, Musk borrowed money from friends to pay his rent after 3 rocket failures in a row, and in the latter, Musk reportedly went as far as securing a pledge from Google to buy Tesla outright rather than let it go bankrupt (Vance2015). Technology now is considered as a subject and profession in the learning and career environment. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. It wont have cut and paste. Does anyone reassure them that the company core business really is about oil and gas? What is different? If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. Someone could have built the Rift in mid-to-late 2007 for a few thousand dollars, and they could have built it in mid-2008 for about $673.5$500.02008. Without the funds for the fuel companies, we couldnt have flown anyway. Freds luck held again. Err Maybe somebody found a new gene. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. Is this impossibly rare? Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. Virgin Atlantic: airlines are cool. within the environment where learning is taking place). He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. In1998! A lot more is being invented with time. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. Perhaps had Kelleher known intimately of all the challenges of entering the airline business, he would have run screaming from the challenge versus deciding to take on the full set of risks. but less On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. Sensors, displays batteries! Organizing a Reflection Paper 1 Keep it short and sweet. Through it all, he had to take a long view of the value of research, not insisting on immediate results of medical or commercial value. The Japanese government in general was funding research, building huge research complexes just to focus on this. Also, people started getting lazy and more ignorant. Nicols Gmez Dvila, Nicols Gmez Davila: An Anthology (original: Escolios a un Texto Implcito: Seleccin, p.430). While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. Great scientists have thought through, in a careful way, a number of important problems in their field, and they keep an eye on wondering how to attack them. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". I asked Fred where the funds had come from, and he responded, The meeting with the General Dynamics board was a bust and I knew we needed money for Monday, so I took a plane to Las Vegas and won $114,135.9$27,000.01973. I said, You mean you took our last $21,136.3$5,000.01973how could you do that? He shrugged his shoulders and said, What difference did it make? Do you have the capital to start a VC fund of your own, and throw multi-million-dollar investments at every social media until finally in 2010 you knew for sure that Facebook was the winning ticket and could cash out in the IPO? (How do you force all relevant companies to sell tradable stakes? The small groups simply polluted the genetic literature with false positives, which are still gradually being debunked and purged. In my first draft of this essay in 2012, I noted that we see what looks like a Bitcoin bubble as the price inflates from ~$0 to $171.5$130.02012yet, if Bitcoin were the Real Deal, we would expect large price increases as people learn of it and it directly gains value from increased use, an ecosystem slowly unlocking the fancy cryptographic features, etc. Critical problems are the research questions, cast in terms of the concrete particulars of currently available knowledge and technique and of specific exemplars or models (eg. previous similar startups failed). it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. The system as a whole can be seen in RL terms. Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. rife with examples of the prescient failing. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. Counting for inflation, probably more money was spent [than] than Facebook just spent on Oculus. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . There is no right or wrong answer. 1. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? In 1983, she joined Flopetrol Johnston Schlumberger in Melun, France. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. Gates, however, proved the market, and refined the Gates strategy to perfection, using up the trick; no one can get historically rich off shipping an OS plus some business productivity software because there are too many competitors and too many players interested in ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, and so opportunity has moved on to the next area. It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. I loved modeling flow through porous media, and I thought modeling three phases instead of just water would be even more interesting. The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. Why is their knowledge so useless? reflection-in-action. With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. The flowmeter did have a place in transient testing, though, but during drawdown, not buildup. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness to individuals. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. Hrleins efforts to translate success in certain areas (vitamin deficiency disease, chemotherapy of protozoal infections) into optimism about possibilities in other areas (cancer, antibacterial chemotherapy) was characteristic. After10 hours of deliberation, he was acquitted. 2. The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. The challenge had always been to come up with a closed-form solution that related to time. The most demanding suppliers when it came to payments were the oil companies. During a recession and a cleantech backlash. Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. Three decades later, the book is highly dated, and the descriptions are of mostly historical interest for the development of various technologies (particularly in the 1990s). Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. After all, why would they say no? . Indeed, the U. S. Department of Transportation estimates that V2V technology may eliminate or reduce the impact of up to 80 percent of crashes involving unimpaired drivers. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. The timing software figures out what race number the ID corresponds to and adds a timestamp for that race number. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. Polarizing here could be reflect a wide posterior value distribution, or if the posterior is being approximated by something like a mixture of experts or an ensemble of multiple models (like running multiple passes over a dropout-trained neural network, or a bootstrapped neural network ensemble). It is essential to try to have a day that is without the use of technology. If you think about the spectrum of things in which you could invest, there are good ideas that look like good ideas. And you know what? And, incidentally, offering an example of why stock markets are fine with paying executives so much: a good executive can createor destroythe entire company. Cook calls this cracking the nut. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? Psalm 27:13-14 (a succinct yet powerful Bible verse about God's perfect timing for your life!) Candidate-gene studies were done by every Tom, Dick, and Harry, but the methodology failed completely because sample sizes many orders of magnitude larger were necessary. Online safety, security, ethics, and etiquette. It is universally admitted that the unicorn is a supernatural being and one of good omen; thus it is declared in the Odes, in the Annals, in the biographies of illustrious men, and in other texts of unquestioned authority. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. The right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. My best timing was meeting my husband of nearly 30 years, Michael Economides. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. September 5, 2005 By Christine A. Ehlig-Economides The Way Ahead "All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. How should we, in the upstream petroleum industry, react to claims that carbon dioxide emissions are causing climate change? Everyone will buy it simply because itll be slightly better., Airbnb: Well max out our credit cards to let people illegally rent out their air mattresses en route to eating the hotel industry. And so, we see, in our world around half such attempts fail completely, and 5% or so go to the moon. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. All those huge initiatives and? "They say, timing is everything. Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. Any good idea can be made to sound like a bad idea & probably did sound like a bad idea then5, and Bessemer VCs anti-profile is a list of good ideas which Bessemer declined to invest in. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. The lesson of history is that for every lesson, there is an equal and opposite lesson. Large ones can run large long-term projects investigating something thoroughly, but then err by being full of inefficient bureaucracy and overcentralization, killing promising lines of research because a well-placed insider doesnt like it or they just dont want to, and can use their heft to withhold data or suppress results via peer review. How do you time your startup? I doubt it. This explores all options initially but gradually homes in on the most profitable option to exploit most of the time, while still occasionally exploring all the other options once in a while, just in case; strictly speaking Thompson sampling will never ban an option permanently, the probability of selecting an option merely becomes vanishingly rare. With few exceptions, established offline firms have failed to catch up to today's Internet leaders. 2. While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. Even the women and children of the common people know that the unicorn is a favorable portent. Returning to Donald Michie: one could make fun of his extremely overly-optimistic AI projections, and write him off as the stock figure of the biased AI researcher blinded by the Maes-Garreau law where AI is always scheduled for right when a researcher will retire19 but while he was wrong, it is unclear this was a mistake because in other cases, an apparently doomed research projectMarconis attempt to radio across the Atlantic oceansucceeded because of an unknown unknownthe KennellyHeaviside layer20. When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. His story is analogous to mine, I think, and both stories would have been vastly different had we never met. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? Its not the consequence that makes a problem important, it is that you have a reasonable attack. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. Its possible for entrepreneurs to create something with huge impact. And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Want to read all 2 pages? Santos, Ma.Miguela B. BSBA - FM2 Science,Technology and Society Reflection: Timing your Technology If you are copying these guys, you arent learning from them.. This includes timers, clocks and etc. Dont ask Fisher, hes hardly going to say, oh yeah, all the money was completely wasted, we were trying to do it too soon; our bad. What does this analogy suggest? BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a plot3., probably more money was spent [ than ] than Facebook just spent on Oculus were correct, but of... 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